Kelowna tops Canada’s 2026 wildfire risk rankings under new federal forecasting model

Kelowna has been ranked the highest wildfire-risk city in Canada for 2026, according to a new national analysis based on Natural Resources Canada’s upgraded wildfire forecasting system.

The study, produced using the updated Canadian Wildland Fire Information System, places Kelowna at the top of its Wildfire Risk Index with a score of 6.8 out of 10.

Researchers say Kelowna’s ranking is driven less by extreme fire-weather conditions and more by high community exposure, including dense development within the wildland-urban interface, surrounding forest fuel loads and a history of significant wildfire activity in the region.

While Prairie cities such as Regina and Winnipeg recorded the most severe forecast fire-weather conditions this summer, Kelowna’s overall risk ranking is elevated by how closely homes and infrastructure sit alongside forested areas. Kamloops also ranked highly for similar reasons, while Fort McMurray stood out as another community with elevated risk tied to structural exposure despite lower forecast fire-weather severity.

The report notes Victoria and Vancouver are expected to see some of the highest numbers of extreme fire-weather days in the country, but neither ranks above Kelowna overall in combined risk.

Researchers behind the study say wildfire risk is increasingly being shaped by development patterns as much as climate conditions.

“Wildfire risk is increasingly becoming a structural issue rather than simply a seasonal one,” said MyChoice CEO Aren Mirzaian.

The report also highlights growing pressure on homeowners in high-risk regions like Kelowna, pointing to rising rebuilding costs, insurance affordability challenges and increasing smoke exposure during wildfire seasons.